Finance and Economics Discussion Series: The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions by Jonathan H. Wright

Finance and Economics Discussion Series: The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions

Jonathan H. Wright

24 pages missing pub info (editions)

nonfiction politics
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The slope of the Treasury yield curve has often been cited as a leading economic indicator, with inversion of the curve being thought of as a harbinger of a recession. In this paper, I consider a number of probit models using the yield curve to fo...

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